Millions of voters in England and Wales are preparing to cast their ballots in local elections on Thursday, which will serve as the final test before the upcoming U.K. general election. All indicators suggest that the Conservative Party is likely to be ousted from power after 14 years, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak facing pressure to deliver successes in key mayoral races to quell talk of a leadership change within his party. On the other hand, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer is hoping that the local elections will confirm the steady rise in opinion polls that suggest Labour is on course to take power for the first time since 2010.
The run-up to the local elections in Britain is characterized by expectation management, with any outperformance by a party being portrayed as a success. The Conservatives are expected to lose around half of the 1,000 seats they are contesting, but they are pointing to the context of similar elections held in 2021 when Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government was riding high following the successful rollout of the coronavirus vaccines. These elections are critical as voters will decide who will govern various aspects of their daily lives, but with a general election looming, they will also be seen through a national lens.
Key aspects to watch in the upcoming local elections include mayoral, council, and police and crime commissioner elections in England and Wales. The results of these elections will provide a final indication of public sentiment before the general election, which must be held by January 2025 but is expected to take place in the second half of 2024. Focusing on London, where Sadiq Khan is poised to secure a third term as mayor, as well as mayoral elections in regions like the West Midlands and Tees Valley, could be crucial for determining the future leadership of the Conservative Party and the potential for Labour to reclaim power.
For Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the local elections could have significant implications for his leadership within the Conservative Party. Sunak, who replaced Liz Truss, faces mounting speculation of a leadership challenge if the election results are unfavorable for the Conservatives. Labour, under Keir Starmer’s leadership, is hoping to capitalize on a favorable national context and make gains in areas that were lost under his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn. However, concerns remain about voter turnout, particularly within Muslim communities unhappy with Labour’s stance on conflicts like the one in Gaza.
Tactical voting and the emergence of Reform UK as a right-leaning challenger are additional factors to consider. Strategic voting, where voters support another party to defeat a common opponent, could play a key role in the upcoming general election. Reform UK’s tougher stance on issues like immigration and Brexit, and its decision not to stand aside to facilitate Conservative victories, could present challenges for the ruling party. Overall, the local elections in England and Wales will serve as a crucial barometer of public sentiment and set the stage for the highly anticipated general election that is expected to take place in the near future.
