Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, does not aspire to be decisive in the Basque Country. The ultra-right party’s expectations are limited to having a symbolic or testimonial presence in the Basque Parliament: maintaining the seat held by their regional deputy Amaia Martínez Grisaleña, and potentially expanding it with a few more seats. However, the results of the upcoming election could be crucial for Vox. For the first time, the party faces the real risk of being excluded from an institution where it is already present: the Basque Parliament. Vox only narrowly missed entering the Galician Parliament on February 18, but this time, the stakes are higher.
Due to the Basque electoral law, winning a seat in Álava was relatively inexpensive for Vox, requiring just over 4,700 votes. However, the party did not secure any seats in Bizkaia despite receiving almost 9,000 votes. The minimum threshold for representation in each demarcation is 3% of the votes, and in Álava, Vox garnered 3.8%, compared to just 1.9% in the overall Basque Country. With the knowledge that a seat in Álava is easier to attain due to lower voter turnout, Vox has focused its efforts on this historical territory, with a majority of campaign events held there.
In contrast to four years ago, Vox now faces a strong PP that could potentially siphon off crucial votes. Abascal has escalated his criticism of the popular party, questioning whether voting for them is akin to supporting Bildu in disguise. Vox has refused to allow interviews with its candidate, making it difficult to ascertain their potential role in preventing a Bildu-led government. Losing its only seat in the Basque Parliament would not only be a political blow for Vox but also a significant financial setback, as the party’s campaign costs are not disclosed, with no public funding available without representation.
Like other parties, Vox has shifted its campaign focus away from territorial conflicts towards social issues such as irregular immigration and crime, presenting them as interconnected. Abascal has accused immigrants of taking social welfare benefits away from native Spaniards and has manipulated data, claiming a 200% increase in rapes in one year. However, official data from the Ministry of Interior shows a 1.1% reduction in crime in Euskadi over the past year, with crime rates per capita below the Spanish average. The recent refusal by Bildu’s candidate to label ETA as a terrorist organization has reshaped the campaign dynamic, prompting Vox to push for the party’s illegalization.
The final stretch of the campaign has been marked by increased tensions, with Vox reporting incidents and filing complaints about insults and harassment towards party members at events in the Basque Country. This surge in activity comes after a period of relative calm, leading Abascal to suggest that there was a directive not to provoke Vox to avoid giving them more attention. The ultra-right party has called for its supporters to rally in Vitoria, offering free buses from various parts of Spain, in response to the evolving political landscape in the Basque Country.
