A recent Marquette Law School Poll released on Wednesday revealed that former President Donald Trump holds a two-point lead over President Biden in Wisconsin in a potential 2024 presidential election rematch. Among registered voters in the crucial Midwestern battleground, Trump stands at 51% support, with Biden at 49%. The poll, conducted from April 3-10, also showed Trump with a 51%-49% lead over Biden among likely voters. When third-party and independent candidates are included, Trump maintains a lead with 41% of registered voters, followed by Biden at 40%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 13%, Jill Stein at 3%, and Cornell West at 2%.
Wisconsin, which was historically part of the Democratic ‘blue wall’ in presidential elections, saw Trump narrowly win the state in 2016. However, Biden carried Wisconsin in 2020 by a slim margin. The latest poll results suggest Biden is leading Trump 97%-3% among Democrats, while Trump has a 91%-9% advantage among Republicans. Independents in Wisconsin lean toward Trump, with 59% supporting him and 41% backing Biden. Additionally, the survey shows that Kennedy takes more votes from Republicans, while Stein and West attract more support from Democrats.
Trump appears to have an advantage in terms of enthusiasm among Wisconsin voters. Respondents who said they were very enthusiastic about voting favored Trump over Biden by a margin of 59% to 41%. Trump recently campaigned in Wisconsin, and the state is key in determining whether Republicans can regain control of the Senate. In a hypothetical Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde 52%-47% among registered voters, but the race is tied at 50% among likely voters. The Marquette Law School poll surveyed 814 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
This latest poll adds to a series of surveys in Wisconsin showing Trump either slightly ahead or tied with Biden. The state has become a focal point in presidential elections, with Trump narrowly winning in 2016 and Biden narrowly carrying it in 2020. The dynamic of the presidential race in Wisconsin reflects broader trends in national politics, as it is a state that has swung between Democratic and Republican candidates in recent years. With Trump’s lead among independents and enthusiastic voters, the state appears to be a crucial battleground for both parties in future elections.
The survey results highlight the challenges and opportunities faced by both Trump and Biden in Wisconsin. Trump’s ability to maintain a lead over Biden among registered and likely voters, as well as his advantage in terms of enthusiasm, indicates a strong base of support in the state. Biden, on the other hand, enjoys strong support among Democrats but faces struggles in appealing to independents and enthusiastic voters. The outcome of future elections in Wisconsin may depend on the ability of both candidates to mobilize their respective voter bases and attract support from key demographics.
Overall, the Marquette Law School poll sheds light on the current political landscape in Wisconsin and the potential dynamics of a 2024 presidential election rematch between Trump and Biden. With Trump holding a slight lead over Biden in the state, both parties will likely intensify their efforts to secure crucial support from independents, enthusiastic voters, and key demographic groups. The results of the poll underscore the importance of Wisconsin as a battleground state in national elections and the need for candidates to effectively navigate its political terrain to secure victory.
