An international team of scientists recently concluded that the recent drought in the Panama Canal was due to below-normal rainfall linked to the natural climate cycle El Niño, not global warming. The low reservoir levels caused by the lack of rainfall slowed cargo traffic in the canal for most of the past year, resulting in expensive delays for shipping companies. The researchers warned that as Panama’s population grows and seaborne trade expands, water demand could outstrip supply by 2050, leading to even wider disruptions during future El Niño years.
Panama is typically one of the wettest places on Earth, receiving more than eight feet of rain on average each year during the May-to-December wet season. However, last year saw rainfall levels about a quarter below normal, making it the third-driest year on record. This dry spell, along with two others in 1997-98 and 2015-16, coincided with El Niño conditions, causing disruptions to canal traffic. The scientists conducted an analysis to determine whether this was just bad luck or if it was related to global warming, ultimately finding that the decreased rainfall was the main reason for low water levels in the canal’s reservoirs.
Despite a modest decrease in wet-season rainfall in Panama in recent decades, the researchers found that it was not due to human-induced climate change. The models used in the analysis did not indicate that global warming was the driver of the slight drying trend, leaving uncertainty about future trends in a warming climate. However, El Niño was found to be clearly linked with below-average rainfall in the area, with a 5 percent chance that rainfall will be as low as it was during the drought year of 2023.
Currently, El Niño conditions are weakening, and La Niña, the opposite phase of the cycle, is expected to appear this summer according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The scientists involved in the analysis are affiliated with World Weather Attribution, a research initiative that examines extreme weather events soon after they occur. Their findings about the Panama Canal drought have not yet been peer-reviewed, but they emphasize the importance of understanding the role of natural climate cycles like El Niño in driving extreme weather events.
Looking ahead, the researchers warn that Panama’s water worries could deepen in the coming decades, especially as water demand outpaces supply due to population growth and increased seaborne trade. Future El Niño years could bring even wider disruptions, not just to global shipping, but also to water supplies for local residents. It remains crucial to monitor and understand the complex interactions between natural climate cycles, global warming, and extreme weather events in order to better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of future droughts and water shortages in the region.
