The Senate is gearing up for a potential showdown over the impeachment articles against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, as Democrats are looking to quickly dismiss them while Republicans are pushing for a full trial. The House recently transmitted the articles to the Senate, and senators are expected to be sworn in as jurors to begin the process. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has not laid out a specific plan for the trial yet, but it is likely that Democrats will move to dismiss or table the articles with a simple majority vote. The chances of a conviction are slim, as it would require a two-thirds majority vote, which seems unlikely.

Senate Republicans are aiming to reach a time agreement with Democrats to allow for floor debate and procedural votes. However, if an agreement is not reached, the process may face delays as Republicans could attempt various procedural maneuvers. Mayorkas is set to become the first Cabinet secretary to be impeached in almost 150 years, with House Republicans voting for impeachment over his handling of the southern border. Democrats have criticized the impeachment as a political stunt and argued that policy disagreements should not be grounds for impeachment.

The decision to either dismiss or hold a full trial on the impeachment articles is causing division among Senate Republicans. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell emphasized the solemn responsibility of considering the charges and voiced opposition to any move to table the articles. Some hard-right Republican senators are pushing for a full trial, but their efforts do not seem likely to gain enough support. The potential vote to dismiss may not strictly follow party lines, as some Republicans have indicated they may be open to dismissal, particularly if there is time for debate beforehand.

Democrats facing tough reelection races are expected to face pressure over their vote on the impeachment articles. Senator Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, who is up for reelection, stated that he plans to vote to dismiss the articles, calling the impeachment a partisan exercise. Senator Jon Tester of Montana did not specify his stance on a motion to dismiss as he had not yet reviewed the articles. Senate President Pro Tempore Patty Murray, a Democrat from Washington, will oversee the proceedings in the Senate.

Republicans targeted Mayorkas soon after taking control of the House, attributing the high number of border crossings to him as they sought to address a key campaign issue. However, many constitutional experts have argued that the evidence presented by Republicans for impeachment does not meet the constitutional standard for high crimes and misdemeanors. Mayorkas and the Department of Homeland Security have defended his leadership, calling the impeachment effort baseless. The White House has attempted to shift the focus, pointing to Republicans blocking a bipartisan border deal in the Senate as evidence of their lack of seriousness about border security.

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