Russia is expanding its military capabilities in response to Finland’s recent accession to the NATO alliance. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has noted the expansion of the Leningrad Military District, with the formation of a missile brigade equipped with Iskander-M ballistic missile systems in Karelia, along with plans for a tank division. In addition, a new air force and air defense army has been deployed in the region, consisting of regiments of fighters and bombers, as well as air defense units and radio engineering troops.
Former Russian Baltic Fleet commander Admiral Vladimir Valuyev stated that the expansion of military capabilities in the Leningrad Military District is a response to Finland joining NATO and aims to strengthen Russia’s force posturing along its western flank. Valuyev indicated that the missile brigade would be prepared to address any NATO forces that pose a threat, emphasizing the need to monitor Finnish actions. Finland’s decision to join NATO was influenced by the regional security threat posed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prompting both Finland and Sweden to join the alliance.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced plans to create two new armies and 30 new formations by the end of the year, as well as reforming the Moscow military districts and increasing the size of the Russian Armed Forces. While there are doubts about the ability to effectively man, train, and equip these larger formations, Putin and other Russian officials frame the conflict in Ukraine as part of a broader existential struggle with the West, justifying a sustained Russian war effort. President Joe Biden and other allies of Ukraine have warned that Russia may target NATO members in the future.
Despite denials from Putin that Russia has intentions to engage in conflicts with NATO members, there is ambiguity in the messaging from the Kremlin and its propagandists. Following his disputed election victory, Putin stated that “everything is possible” regarding a potential conflict with the alliance, adding to the uncertainty surrounding Russia’s military intentions. The deployment of additional military forces in the Leningrad Military District reflects Russia’s preparations for a large-scale conflict with NATO, which continues to be a source of concern for Kyiv’s allies and the international community. In response to these developments, increased vigilance and diplomacy are crucial to prevent further escalation and maintain regional stability.
