The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly met with a known rival of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, possibly in an attempt to diminish Shoigu’s power. This move follows the arrest of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on bribery charges, which some analysts believe was a warning to Shoigu, as Ivanov was seen as one of his closest allies. The meeting between Putin and Shoigu’s rival, Alexei Dyumin, governor of Russia’s Tula Oblast and affiliate of the Wagner Group mercenaries, focused on the region’s support for the war in Ukraine, including equipping military units and manufacturing weapons. The ISW suggests that this meeting may have been a form of punishment for Shoigu and the Ministry of Defense for failing to achieve the Kremlin’s military goals.
Dyumin had publicly criticized Shoigu before leading a mutiny against Moscow in June, siding with Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who perished in a mysterious plane crash later on. Dyumin reportedly tried to influence personnel changes within the Ministry of Defense and potentially aimed to replace Shoigu himself. The ISW believes that Dyumin’s meeting with Putin was an attempt to win favor with the president, and that Putin deliberately publicized the meeting as a possible rebuke to Shoigu. There is speculation that Putin may appoint Dyumin to a role in the defense industry, indicating that the president may have been the decision-maker behind Ivanov’s arrest.
The timing of the Putin-Dyumin meeting, which occurred between Ivanov’s arrest and an expected government reshuffle following Putin’s recent inauguration, has sparked discussion within the Russian information space. Many milbloggers and political commentators have noted the significance of the meeting and its potential implications for Shoigu’s position within the Ministry of Defense. David Silbey, associate professor of history at Cornell University, believes that Putin’s involvement in Ivanov’s arrest sends a message to Shoigu that he too could be targeted, either through dismissal or retirement. Putin’s actions suggest that he is actively managing internal dynamics within the Russian defense establishment and may be signaling a shift in leadership within the Ministry of Defense.
The ISW report highlights the complex dynamics at play within the Russian military and government, with Putin using public gestures to assert his authority and influence the balance of power among key figures. Shoigu’s perceived failures in achieving the Kremlin’s military objectives in Ukraine have potentially led to his diminishing influence within the defense establishment, as evidenced by Putin’s meeting with Dyumin. The connection between the arrest of Ivanov, Dyumin’s alignment with the Wagner Group, and Putin’s publicized meeting with him suggests a calculated move by the Russian president to assert control over the defense ministry and potentially signal upcoming changes in leadership.
As tensions continue to escalate in the conflict in Ukraine and Putin asserts his authority over key military figures, the power dynamics within the Russian defense establishment are likely to shift. The implications of Putin’s actions, including the arrest of Ivanov, Dyumin’s closeness to the Wagner Group, and his meeting with the president, reflect a broader strategy to consolidate power and influence within the Ministry of Defense. Shoigu’s position as defense minister may be increasingly precarious as Putin signals a possible change in leadership. The evolving situation in Russia’s defense sector underscores the complex interplay between personal relationships, political maneuvering, and strategic goals in the Kremlin.
