Iran and Israel, longtime regional enemies, are engaged in a series of attacks and threats. Israel launched a “limited military strike” on Iran in retaliation for Iran sending over 300 missiles and drones into Israeli territory, causing no deaths. This exchange of attacks has caused markets to react, with oil prices rising and U.S. stock futures falling due to fears of a wider Middle East war. The tensions between the two countries have been escalating over the course of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, with Iranian-backed groups attacking Israel and Israel carrying out assassinations of Iranian leaders and their proxies.
The possibility of a full-blown conventional war between Israel and Iran would be devastating to both sides and highly destabilizing for the Middle East. It remains unclear whether the current situation of tit-for-tat attacks between the two countries will escalate into all-out war or remain carefully calibrated retaliation strikes. Both Israel and Iran have vowed forceful responses to the attacks, while other leaders in the region are calling for de-escalation. The scale of Israel’s response is likely to depend on whether it has U.S. backing, with President Joe Biden stating that the U.S. will not take part in any offensive military operations against Iran.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has warned that even a small incursion into Iran’s borders would trigger a massive and harsh response. Some experts believe that the recent attacks represent the end of the “shadow war” chapter and the beginning of a direct nation-on-nation hot war between Israel and Iran. Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stated that Iran has declared war on Israel with its recent actions. However, others argue that the limited nature of Israel’s attack and the forewarning of Iran’s strikes suggest that the situation may not have escalated to a wider conflict.
While the recent attacks may seem escalatory, some analysts believe that both Israel and Iran have shown restraint in their actions. Israel’s strike on Iranian soil did not result in casualties or significant damage to Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes were designed to be easily intercepted. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that there was no damage to Iran’s nuclear sites. Despite the escalation in tensions, the attacks by both sides did not result in loss of life or significant damage, which suggests that neither side may be seeking an all-out war.
The situation remains unpredictable, with the cycle of escalatory moves between Israel and Iran continuing. Any miscalculation could have serious consequences, given the involvement of various actors in the region. The question now is when the cycle of retaliations will end and which side will decide not to respond next. As the ball is back in Iran’s court, the uncertainty surrounding what will happen in the coming days makes it challenging to predict the next steps in this ongoing conflict. The potential for a wider conflict looms large, and the decisions made by both Israel and Iran in the coming days will be crucial in determining the future course of events in the region.
