According to Gallup poll data dating back to 2007, most countries prefer alignment with the U.S. over China when the White House is occupied by a Democrat. This preference for U.S. leadership over Chinese leadership is particularly pronounced under Democratic administrations, with a “net approval disadvantage” seen when a Republican is in office. In 2023, nearly half of the world’s countries leaned towards the U.S. compared to China, with over a fifth of nations strongly aligned with the U.S. This trend has been observed under previous administrations, such as George Bush and Barack Obama, and may impact America’s global influence in the upcoming presidential contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
The Gallup report shows a shift in global alignment towards the U.S. following Biden’s inauguration, indicating a strong preference for American leadership. Both candidates in the upcoming election have taken a tough stance on China, with public opinion increasingly viewing Beijing as an adversary rather than a rival or partner. While China saw increased favorability on the global stage in 2007, this trend has not continued over the years despite its efforts to increase familiarity and influence on the world stage. In contrast, U.S. leadership has maintained a general net approval rate under the Biden and Obama administrations, suggesting a resilience in the country’s appeal compared to its competitors.
Despite the shifting preferences towards U.S. leadership in recent years, both America and China have experienced periods of disillusionment globally. Since 2017, more countries have disapproved of both countries’ leadership than approved, with a peak in disapproval rates during the Trump administration. While these rates have decreased under Biden, they remain higher than during most of the Obama administration. This trend suggests a growing lack of enthusiasm for both global powers, signaling a potential decrease in their influence on the world stage.
The U.S. has faced challenges in maintaining favorability against China, losing ground in countries like Russia and certain African nations. However, it has made gains in regions impacted by global events, such as the invasion of Ukraine, including countries like Poland and various Asian nations. Despite this, a majority of countries in Southeast Asia are more likely to align with China than the U.S. if forced to choose sides, as indicated by a regional survey. Germany emerged as a world leader in Gallup’s latest report, with the highest approval rate of 46% compared to both the U.S. and China, leading in both Europe and Asia in terms of global leadership approval.
In conclusion, the trends in global alignment towards the U.S. versus China highlight the complexities of international relations and the shifting dynamics of global power. While America has seen a resurgence in global favorability under Democratic administrations, challenges remain in maintaining this position amidst growing competition and changing perceptions of global leadership. The upcoming presidential election between Biden and Trump may play a crucial role in shaping America’s influence and relationships with other countries on the world stage.
