Less than six weeks before the European Parliament elections, the campaign seems to not yet have started, at least in the eyes of the French population, according to a survey conducted by Ipsos, in partnership with Cevipof, Institut Montaigne, Fondation Jean Jaurès, and Le Monde. The level of interest in the election has only slightly increased from 56% to 57% from March to April, and the intention to participate in the election has also seen a minor increase from 44% to 45%. This lack of interest and potential high level of abstention could disrupt the stability of Western democracies.
While the composition of the electorate is expected to remain relatively stable until June 9th, any changes in the dynamics of the election will rely on the second factor that affects voting intentions: shifts in support from one candidate to another. Currently, only 63% of voters claim to be certain of their choice of candidate, indicating that there is still a significant portion of undecided voters. This trend of voter indecision is becoming increasingly important in countries with declining party loyalty and high electoral volatility, with a quarter of voters hesitating in their choice even up to the last moment during the 2022 presidential election.
The demographic factors of gender and age also play a significant role in voter indecision. Women are more likely to be undecided about their choice of candidate compared to men, with 42% of female voters stating that their decision is not final, compared to 32% of male voters. Age also influences the level of indecision, with 43% of voters under 35 years old believing that their choice could still change, compared to 38% among voters aged 35-59, and 33% among those aged 60 and above. These factors could have a substantial impact on the final outcome of the election, especially if a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided.
It is evident that voter turnout and the final results of the European Parliament elections could be greatly influenced by the level of interest and engagement among the electorate. With a lack of enthusiasm and high levels of indecision among voters, the potential for significant shifts in support for different candidates remains a possibility. As the campaign progresses in the coming weeks, it will be crucial for parties and candidates to effectively communicate their messages and engage with undecided voters in order to secure their support and ensure a successful outcome on election day. The outcome of the election will ultimately depend on how these factors evolve and whether any significant shifts in support occur in the final weeks leading up to the election.
