Democrats Bob Casey in Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin are currently leading in their reelection campaigns, but face more competitive races compared to their large margins of victory in 2018. The environment for their campaigns is more challenging this year, with plenty of undecided voters and potential for races to tighten as the campaigns heat up approaching the fall election.
There are several reasons why the races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could change in the coming months. The Republican challengers, David McCormick in Pennsylvania and Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, are not well known to voters yet. Both Casey and Baldwin have higher name recognition, but they are still under 50% in current preferences of likely voters, leaving room for persuasion of undecided voters. Furthermore, the political environment is different from six years ago, with dissatisfaction towards President Biden’s job performance and a competitive presidential race in these states complicating the Senate races.
Recent votes for president and Congress indicate that undecided voters in these Senate races lean Republican and are primarily voting for Trump at the top of the ticket. With ticket splitting on the decline, the baseline expectation is that these undecided voters will likely choose GOP candidates down ballot. Only a small percentage of likely voters are currently choosing different parties for president and Senate, providing a slight advantage to the Democratic incumbents at the moment. If undecided voters were to align with the same party for president and Senate, the margins in both races would tighten to under five points.
Surveys conducted by CBS News/YouGov between April 19-25, 2024, show representative samples of 1,306 registered voters in Pennsylvania and 1,245 in Wisconsin. Margins of error for likely voters are ±3.1 points in Pennsylvania and ±3.3 points in Wisconsin. Kabir Khanna, Deputy Director of Elections & Data Analytics at CBS News, conducts surveys, develops statistical models, and projects races at the network’s Decision Desk. His scholarly research focuses on political behavior and methodology, with a PhD in political science from Princeton University.
As the campaigns progress towards the fall election, the races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are expected to intensify as both Democratic incumbents, Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin, seek reelection against lesser-known Republican challengers. With several months to go before voting starts, there is ample time for movement in the races, as the challengers increase their visibility and make their case to voters. The dynamics of the political environment, including dissatisfaction towards President Biden’s job performance and a competitive presidential race, will also play a pivotal role in shaping the outcomes of these Senate races.
Overall, the current status of the Senate races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin shows a lead for the Democratic incumbents but with potential for shifts in voter preferences in the coming months. As undecided voters, primarily leaning Republican and voting for Trump at the top of the ticket, make their decisions, the margins in the races could tighten, presenting challenges for Casey and Baldwin in persuading enough voters to secure their reelection. The surveys conducted by CBS News/YouGov provide a snapshot of the current state of the races, with room for change as the campaigns progress towards the fall election.
