Eight years have passed since Brexit was voted, and over three years since a last-minute New Year’s Eve agreement gave Gibraltar extra time to avoid the consequences of a abrupt departure. The more than 300,000 residents of Gibraltar and its surrounding Spanish area have been through too many negotiations to fully embrace the announcement that a political agreement between the UK and Spain is closer. Unions, worker associations, business owners, and residents on both sides of the border have received this apparent consensus with caution and skepticism.

The uncertainty for workers in the region remains despite a joint statement from the UK, Spain, and the European Commission announcing progress on issues such as the airport, goods, and mobility. The lack of concrete details on the negotiations, the agreed-upon text, or the timeline for finalizing the deal has tempered the high expectations that the region had leading up to this announcement. The Secretary-General of Comisiones Obreras in Campo de Gibraltar stated that while any progress is positive, the uncertainty for workers persists.

The agreement reached on New Year’s Eve in 2020 spared Gibraltar from the repercussions of a hard Brexit, allowing temporary continuation of relations with its surroundings while negotiations were ongoing. The discussion in the 18 rounds of talks, which started in October 2021, has faced challenges related to the presence of Spanish or Frontex police at the airport and port. The residents on both sides of the border have been keeping a close eye on the limited information that has been released about the negotiations, with changing levels of interest, enthusiasm, and disappointment based on the progress made.

Many residents have been frustrated by the long waits and uncertainty at the border, with some seeing shorter job contracts due to economic insecurity. Both the Gibraltar government and local businesses have warned of the negative impact on the region’s economy if an agreement is not reached. Business owners, such as Sammy Armstrong of Savills, have felt the effects of restrictions on entry to Spain for English clients and are hopeful for a final agreement to provide certainty for workers and businesses.

There is a call for a treaty to provide certainty for cross-border workers and to fulfill the promises of shared prosperity in the region. However, until the final agreement is signed, the constant political announcements and promises of a common prosperity zone ring hollow for many locals who are facing high unemployment rates. The skepticism and caution among residents, unions, and business owners reflect the prolonged and uncertain negotiations that have characterized the process of reaching an agreement between the UK, Spain, and Gibraltar.

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