Billionaire Arthur Hayes has cautiously expressed his views on the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, contrary to the general optimism in the market. He believes that the price action before and after the event may actually result in negative effects on the asset’s value. Hayes pointed out that when market consensus heavily leans towards a particular outcome, the opposite often occurs, leading him to believe that Bitcoin and crypto prices could experience a slump around the time of the halving. He has decided to abstain from trading until May due to the scarcity of US dollar liquidity, which he believes will fuel a sell-off of crypto assets, particularly between April 15 and May 1.
Hayes predicts that Bitcoin prices will plummet before and after the halving event, with US dollar liquidity being tighter than usual at that time. However, he anticipates a turnaround after May 1 as the pace of Quantitative Tightening slows down, marking the end of a precarious period for risky assets and a return of liquidity. While he does not plan to short the market outright, Hayes has closed profitable positions in various cryptocurrencies and intends to stay in a no-trade zone until May 1, positioning himself for the beginning of a bull market.
Despite Hayes’ cautionary view, other industry executives, such as Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, remain optimistic about the future of cryptocurrencies. Garlinghouse predicts that the total market value of cryptocurrencies will double this year, largely driven by spot ETFs and Bitcoin halving. He believes that the introduction of real institutional money through ETFs will have a significant impact on the market. Additionally, research analyst Matteo Greco expects Bitcoin to reach $75,000 by the halving event, noting that historically, halving events have marked significant points followed by uptrends lasting 9-18 months and culminating in cycle peaks.
Investors have shown their confidence in crypto products by pouring a total of $646 million into the market, pushing year-to-date inflows to an unprecedented $13.8 billion, surpassing the previous year’s total of $10.6 billion. This influx of investment signals a positive sentiment towards cryptocurrencies, despite the cautious views of some industry veterans like Arthur Hayes. Overall, the market remains optimistic about the future of cryptocurrencies, driven by factors such as the introduction of institutional money through ETFs and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event.
