Experts are predicting an “extremely active” 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with an anticipated rise in major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. The season is expected to be well above the 1991-2020 average, with researchers forecasting 23 named storms and 115 named storm days, compared to the previous average of 14.4 storms and 69.4 named storm days.
The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. Warm sea surface temperatures and warm tropical Atlantic conditions, intensified by the presence of La Niña, are setting the stage for an extremely active period. La Niña conditions, expected to develop this summer, decrease vertical wind shear and create favorable conditions for hurricanes to develop and strengthen.
Researchers estimate a higher probability of major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. and Caribbean, with some areas seeing a more than 10% increase in likelihood. The probability of a category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane making landfall on the continental U.S. coast is predicted to be 62%, up from the average of 43%. Along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the probability has jumped to 34% from 21%, while along the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle, it has risen to 42% from 27% in previous years.
The upcoming hurricane season follows a record-breaking 2023, which was globally the warmest year on record. Last year’s elevated water temperatures contributed to a higher number of hurricanes. Forecasters caution that seasonal predictions are based on statistical and dynamical models that can sometimes fail in certain years. As the season approaches, individuals in hurricane-prone areas are urged to prepare and stay informed about potential storms and evacuation procedures.
Cara Tabachnick, a news editor and journalist at CBSNews.com, reports on justice and human rights issues and has written for publications such as Marie Claire, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal. With a background in crime reporting at Newsday, she brings a wealth of experience to her coverage of important and timely topics. For any inquiries or leads, she can be reached at cara.tabachnick@cbsinteractive.com.
