Months after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada accused India’s government of plotting a murder on Canadian soil, the first arrests in the killing of Sikh nationalist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar did little to clarify the basis of his claim. The police announced that three Indian men had committed the killing and that an investigation into India’s role was ongoing. While Indian officials had characterized the incident as a rivalry between gangs, analysts suggested that India’s external spy agency, RAW, may be extending its playbook to operations in Western countries.

In a separate case, the United States produced strong evidence indicating Indian government involvement in a foiled assassination attempt on a dual American-Canadian citizen. Both Canada and its allies supported Trudeau’s claim of Indian agents being involved in Nijjar’s killing. However, nearly nine months after Trudeau’s accusation, no evidence has been revealed, leaving the case in a realm of accusations and counter-accusations in a politically tense environment in both countries. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has presented himself as a nationalist protector, ready to eliminate enemies, which has influenced right-wing accounts celebrating Nijjar’s killing.

The three Indian men suspected in Nijjar’s killing were arrested in Edmonton, Alberta, and charged with first-degree murder and conspiracy. They were linked to a gang led by Lawrence Bishnoi, known for murder, extortion, and narcotics trafficking. Bishnoi, who has orchestrated crimes from an Indian jail since 2014, has alleged connections to criminal networks in Canada that support Khalistan, a separatist movement seeking independence for Punjab. The Indian government has criticized Western countries, including Canada, for failing to crack down on Khalistan supporters.

RAW has been suspected of recruiting killers through criminal gangs to carry out operations with deniability, as seen in India’s immediate neighborhood. Bishnoi, who has shown significant influence from jail, has attempted to align himself with nationalism in a bid to secure a deal. Security analysts note the possibility of using gang rivalries to carry out covert operations, although the specifics of Nijjar’s killing remain unclear.

While India responded to the failed plot on American soil with promises of cooperation and investigations, its reaction to Trudeau’s claims was aggressive. Canada, on the other hand, has not publicly disclosed any evidence supporting Trudeau’s accusations, leading to tension between the two countries. Indian officials expelled Canadian diplomats and accused Canada of permitting separatism and extremism. Overlapping issues of crime, terrorism, and political tensions continue to strain diplomatic relations between Canada and India as the investigation into Nijjar’s killing unfolds.

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