Which teams will drop from the Premier League?

With two months of the Premier League season left, it is set to be a tense battle to avoid relegation to the Championship.

There are only four points separating Crystal Palace in 12th and bottom-of-the league Southampton.

It is the least amount of points between the teams 12th and 20th at this stage of the season in Premier League history.

Data specialists Gracenote has studied the stats and judged each team’s chances of being relegated based on their remaining fixtures, giving them a percentage chance of survival.

Gracenote says 39 points will be enough to guarantee Premier League survival but BBC Sport wants to know how you think the fight to avoid the drop will go.

See what percentage chance the teams have of surviving relegation and give your thoughts with our ranked list.

How it stands

Stats prediction

Crystal Palace (12th, 27pts)

Crystal Palace have not won in the league in 2023 and that form led to the dismissal of manager Patrick Vieira with 75-year-old former Eagles boss Roy Hodgson given the task of keeping them in the division.

However, nine of Palace’s past 10 matches have been against teams in the top eight and the other one was away at 11th-placed Aston Villa.

Eight of the matches in Palace’s run-in are against teams in this relegation battle, including a final-day home game with Nottingham Forest.

Still to play: 1 Apr Leicester (h), 9 Apr Leeds (a), 15 Apr Southampton (a), 22 Apr Everton (h), 25 Apr Wolves (a), 29 Apr West Ham (h), 6 May Tottenham (a), 13 May Bournemouth (h), 20 May Fulham (a), 28 May Nottingham Forest (h)

Gracenote fact: Crystal Palace have selected only 20 players in their starting line-ups this season, the same as Arsenal and Newcastle. Only Manchester City (18) have started fewer players than Palace.

Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest players

Wolves (13th, 27pts)

Wolves are on their third manager of the season after Bruno Lage was sacked in October before a lengthy search for his full-time successor saw Steve Davis take charge for seven Premier League matches, with them only securing four points in that time.

But former Spain manager Julen Lopetegui has led them to five league wins, including home victories over both Liverpool and Tottenham to take them out of the bottom three.

They will want to get their points quickly as their last two away matches of the season see them at Manchester United and then Arsenal.

Still to play: 1 Apr Nottingham Forest (a), 8 Apr Chelsea (h), 15 Apr Brentford (h), 22 Apr Leicester (a), 25 Apr Crystal Palace (h), 29 Apr Brighton (a), 6 May Aston Villa (h), 13 May Manchester United (a), 20 May Everton (h), 28 May Arsenal (a)

Gracenote fact: Wolverhampton Wanderers have the worst finishing in the Premier League this season, scoring from only 6% of their goal attempts. This is less than half the scoring rate of the best teams, Brentford and Manchester City, who have both scored from 15% of their attempts.

Leeds United (14th, 26pts)

Leeds United only stayed up on the final day of last season and are in another relegation battle in 2022-23.

With matches still to come against Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle and Tottenham, it could go down to the wire again.

Jesse Marsch was sacked as manager in February with the club on a seven-game winless run but Javi Gracia has made an encouraging start with wins over Southampton and Wolves as well as a draw with Brighton in three of his first four league games in charge.

Still to play: 1 Apr Arsenal (a), 4 Apr Nottingham Forest (h), 9 Apr Crystal Palace (h), 17 Apr Liverpool (h), 22 Apr Fulham (a), 25 Apr Leicester (h), 30 Apr Bournemouth (a), 7 May Manchester City (a), 13 May Newcastle (h), 20 May West Ham (a), 28 May Tottenham (h)

Gracenote fact: Leeds United are the only one of the relegation candidates to have won two of their past four matches. Wolves, Everton, West Ham, Bournemouth and Southampton have each won one of their past four. The other three teams fighting to avoid going down have all failed to win in their past four games.

Leeds United players celebrate a goal against Brentford

Everton (15th, 26pts)

Everton’s results have been much improved since Sean Dyche became manager at the end of January following the sacking of Frank Lampard.

They beat Premier League leaders Arsenal in Dyche’s first game as boss and have followed that with wins over Leeds and Brentford as well as draws at Nottingham Forest and Chelsea.

However, the Toffees, who have played in the top flight of English football in every season since 1954-55, are still only two points above the relegation zone and have to face top-half teams in six of their last 10 matches.

Still to play: 3 Apr Tottenham (h), 8 Apr Manchester United (a), 15 Apr Fulham (h), 22 Apr Crystal Palace (a), 27 Apr Newcastle (h), 1 May Leicester (a), 6 May Brighton (a), 13 May Manchester City (h), 20 May Wolves (a), 28 May Bournemouth (h)

Gracenote fact: Only Bournemouth have faced more goal attempts from their opponents this season than Everton’s 419.

Nottingham Forest (16th, 26pts)

Nottingham Forest are in their first Premier League season since 1998-99 after winning promotion from the Championship last season and Steve Cooper has signed 30 players in a bid to keep them at the top level.

However, they have scored the joint lowest amount of goals (22, level with Crystal Palace, Wolves and Everton), with only four league goals coming away from the City Ground.

They are also on a poor run of form with only two points from their past six matches and with a daunting fixture list including Manchester United, Liverpool, Brighton, Brentford, Chelsea and Arsenal still to come.

Still to play: 1 Apr Wolves (h), 4 Apr Leeds (a), 8 Apr Aston Villa (a), 16 Apr Manchester United (h), 22 Apr Liverpool (a), 26 Apr Brighton (h), 29 Apr Brentford (a), 8 May Southampton (h), 13 May Chelsea (a), 20 May Arsenal (h), 28 May Crystal Palace (a)

Gracenote fact: Nottingham Forest have used 33 different players in the Premier League this season, more than any other team.

Leicester City (17th, 25pts)

Leicester City came eighth last season and reached the semi-finals of the Europa Conference League, but made an awful start to this campaign as they only picked up one point in their first seven matches.

Five wins in eight games before the break for the World Cup left them in mid-table, but they have only won two league matches since then and they have taken only eight points from their past 10 matches.

However, the Foxes have six matches remaining against their relegation rivals and only three against teams in the Premier League’s top eight.

Still to play: 1 Apr Crystal Palace (a), 4 Apr Aston Villa (h), 8 Apr Bournemouth (h), 15 Apr Manchester City (a), 22 Apr Wolves (h), 25 Apr Leeds (a), 1 May Everton (h), 6 May Fulham (a), 13 May Liverpool (h), 20 May Newcastle (a), 28 May West Ham (h)

Gracenote fact: No Premier League team this season has allowed their opponents more big chances than Leicester City (75). Bournemouth’s opponents have also had 75 big opportunities to score.

West Ham United (18th, 24pts)

West Ham have finished sixth and seventh in the past two seasons but find themselves in the bottom three and fighting for their top-flight survival.

They have more games left than any other team in the bottom half but will face a hectic schedule as they also have a two-legged quarter-final in the Europa Conference League with a two-legged semi-final to come if they advance further.

Five of West Ham’s remaining matches are against teams in the top six, but they also still have to play the bottom two – Southampton and Bournemouth – as well as relegation-threatened Crystal Palace, Leeds and Leicester.

Still to play: 2 Apr Southampton (h), 5 Apr Newcastle (h), 8 Apr Fulham (a), 16 Apr Arsenal (h), 23 Apr Bournemouth (a), 26 Apr Liverpool (h), 29 Apr Crystal Palace (a), 3 May Manchester City (a), 7 May Manchester United (h), 13 May Brentford (a), 20 May Leeds (h), 28 May Leicester (a)

Gracenote fact: Only the Premier League’s top seven teams have had more goal attempts this season than West Ham’s 342. Only five of the top seven plus Chelsea have conceded fewer goal attempts this season than West Ham’s 309.

Bournemouth (19th, 24pts)

Bournemouth were the first top-flight team to sack their manager this season with Scott Parker, who got them promotion last season, dimissed after criticising the club’s summer recruitment following a Premier League record-equalling 9-0 loss at Liverpool in August.

Gary O’Neil has been their manager since, firstly on an interim basis before getting the job permanently in November. The Cherries did not win any of their first seven league matches following the World Cup but victories over Wolves and a 1-0 success over Liverpool have given them hope.

Six of Bournemouth’s remaining matches are against other teams in this relegation fight but four of those games are away.

Still to play: 1 Apr Fulham (h), 4 Apr Brighton (h), 8 Apr Leicester (a), 15 Apr Tottenham (a), 23 Apr West Ham (h), 27 Apr Southampton (a), 30 Apr Leeds (h), 6 May Chelsea (h), 13 May Crystal Palace (a), 20 May Manchester United (h), 28 May Everton (a)

Gracenote fact: Bournemouth have conceded 15 goals from corners in this season’s Premier League, nearly twice as many as the next worst team at defending corners, Chelsea (eight). On average, Bournemouth concede a goal from every 13 corners they face.

Southampton (20th, 23pts)

Southampton are another side on their third manager of the season after they sacked Ralph Hasenhuttl in November. He was replaced by Nathan Jones, but he only lasted eight Premier League matches and picked up one win before he was also dismissed.

Ruben Selles, assistant manager under Hasenhuttl, was next in line and started with a 1-0 victory at Chelsea. A win against Leicester and draws with Manchester United and Tottenham have given Saints fans some hope.

However, half of Southampton’s remaining 10 matches are against the top seven teams, ending the season with a home game against Liverpool.

Still to play: 2 Apr West Ham (a), 8 Apr Manchester City (h), 15 Apr Crystal Palace (h), 21 Apr Arsenal (a), 27 Apr Bournemouth (h), 30 Apr Newcastle (a), 8 May Nottingham Forest (a), 13 May Fulham (h), 20 May Brighton (a), 28 May Liverpool (h).

Gracenote fact: Southampton have kept fewer clean sheets this season than any other team in the Premier League. Their total of four clean sheets is one fewer than Leeds United and West Ham United.