Subscribe to Updates

    Get the latest news from USA, Canada and Europe directly to your inbox.

    What's Hot

    Google won't block news links in Canada after all

    November 29, 2023

    Edmonton police to announce charges in deaths of 2 constables

    November 29, 2023

    Trump seeks improvement despite easy victory

    November 29, 2023
    Facebook Twitter Instagram
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms
    • Contact
    Facebook Twitter Instagram
    West ObserverWest Observer
    • Home
    • News
      1. United States
      2. Europe
      3. Canada
      4. Latin America
      5. Australia
      6. World
      7. View All

      Biden Takes ‘Bidenomics’ to Colorado, Hits ‘MAGA’ Republicans

      November 29, 2023

      Malaysia’s Prime Minister Gets Mixed Reviews One-Year On

      November 29, 2023

      Dubai Hosts COP28 Summit Amid Intensifying Climate Emergency

      November 29, 2023

      French Justice Minister Not Guilty in Conflict-of-Interest Trial

      November 29, 2023

      Brussels threatens Poland with legal action over ‘unacceptable’ truckers blockade at Ukraine border

      November 29, 2023

      EU countries need to curb irregular migration to prevent far-right surge, says Manfred Weber

      November 29, 2023

      Brussels to revive ties with Turkey despite ‘differences’ and stalled EU membership talks

      November 29, 2023

      ‘We must be ambitious’ at COP28, says EU climate action commissioner

      November 29, 2023

      Edmonton police to announce charges in deaths of 2 constables

      November 29, 2023

      Canadian government reaches C-18 online news deal with Google: sources

      November 29, 2023

      GM says strike cost US$1.1B, but it can absorb rising labour costs as it raises dividend

      November 29, 2023

      Alberta Health Services issues measles alert in Calgary

      November 29, 2023

      In agreement with Vox and the Basques, formation of a new government remains in Spain

      July 25, 2023

      there is the possibility of new disclosures, says attorney-general of the MP-RJ to CNN

      July 25, 2023

      Market bets on the most aggressive cut two oaths after the negative inflation

      July 25, 2023

      Whindersson Nunes Announces Non-Onlyfans Profile Opening; see other famous people who enter

      July 25, 2023

      What is ESG and Why is it Important ?

      September 23, 2023

      Moscow hopes to reach a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan

      July 25, 2023

      The rights to broadcast the African World Cup qualifiers are in the custody of «FIFA»

      July 25, 2023

      Al-Ittihad “completed ranks” two days before the start of “Al-Arabiya”

      July 25, 2023

      Edmonton police to announce charges in deaths of 2 constables

      November 29, 2023

      Biden Takes ‘Bidenomics’ to Colorado, Hits ‘MAGA’ Republicans

      November 29, 2023

      Canadian government reaches C-18 online news deal with Google: sources

      November 29, 2023

      Malaysia’s Prime Minister Gets Mixed Reviews One-Year On

      November 29, 2023
    • Politics
    • Business
    • Lifestyle
    • Tech
    • Sports
    • Travel
    • More
      • Entertainment
      • Videos
    en English
    en Englishes Españolfr Françaisde Deutschhi हिन्दीit Italianoja 日本語pt Portuguêsru Русскийzh-CN 简体中文
    West ObserverWest Observer
    Home » How Joe Biden and the Democratic Party defied midterm history | CNN Politics

    How Joe Biden and the Democratic Party defied midterm history | CNN Politics

    November 13, 2022No Comments Politics
    Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr Reddit Telegram
    Share
    Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Email



    CNN
     — 

    President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party have pulled off a midterm election for the record books.

    Democrats have retained the Senate – doing no worse than holding steady at 50 seats and potentially gaining one – and look likely to keep any net losses in the House in the single digits.

    Midterms are supposed to be the time for the opposition party to shine. That should especially be the case when there is once-in-a-generation inflation and when the vast majority of Americans think the country is on the wrong track.

    Instead, Biden and the Democrats are in a position to have one of the four best midterms for the party controlling the White House in the last century.

    So just what happened? It’s pretty clear that general election voters punished Republican candidates they saw as too extreme – on issues such as abortion and/or for being too closely tied to former President Donald Trump.

    Still, the election results were extremely unusual. I went back through the record books. Since 1922, there have been three previous instances of the president’s party gaining (or losing no) Senate seats and losing fewer than 10 House seats in the president’s first midterm.

    All of them – 1934, 1962 and 2002 – are thought to be monumental achievements for the president’s party and major exceptions to rule, which suggests the party controlling the White House usually loses seats in a midterm.

    Democrats’ performance this year has funneled down to the state level as well. We already know, based on projected races, that this will be the first time since 1934 that the president’s party had a net gain of governorships in a president’s first midterm. (1986 is the only other post-1934 midterm, regardless of when it fell in a presidency, when the president’s party had a net gain of governorships, though Ronald Reagan’s GOP had massive losses in the Senate that year.)

    The shocking thing about this year (assuming the current trends hold) is that Biden is quite unpopular. His approval rating was 44% in the exit polls. His favorable rating was 41%.

    We don’t have any polling from 1934, though considering Franklin Roosevelt won two landslide victories on either end of that midterm, he was likely quite popular.

    The polling from 1962 and 2002 shows the presidents at the time (John F. Kennedy and George W. Bush respectively) with approval ratings north of 60%.

    The ability for Democrats to defy expectations this year starts simply with whom Republicans nominated for statewide elections. Analysts, myself included, noted that Republicans seemed to have a candidate likability problem. Pre-election polling showed that Republicans in all the key races had negative net favorability ratings. Democrats in pretty much all the key races were better liked than their opponents.

    Many of those Republicans were endorsed by Trump and had said (at least at one point) that they believed he had won the 2020 election. (This, of course, is false, as Biden won the election.)

    The exit polls bear out Republicans’ “candidate problem” in the 2022 midterms. In every Senate race (save Georgia) that Inside Elections had rated as a toss-up or only tilting toward a party before the election, more voters said the Republican candidate’s views were too extreme than said the same for the Democratic candidate.

    We see this in gubernatorial elections, as well. Republicans nominated 2020 election deniers for governor in a number of blue or swing states. None of them has been projected a winner, and only Republican Kari Lake of Arizona has any chance of winning.

    Perhaps the lack of success by these GOP candidates shouldn’t be a surprise given that some 60% of voters – both in pre-election surveys and the exit polls – believe Biden was legitimately elected.

    Still, Democrats look to have scored an incredible achievement in the 2022 midterms, especially given how unpopular polls showed Biden was.

    The last two Democratic presidents with approval ratings matching Biden’s in their first midterm (Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010) saw their party suffer a net loss of more than 50 House seats, at least five Senate seats and at least five governorships.

    Of course, bad Senate or gubernatorial candidates weren’t the only reason Republicans had a disappointing midterm election.

    On the national level, there are two presidents in the spotlight: the current one (Biden) and the former one (Trump). Both men sported negative net favorable ratings, per the exit polls.

    The fact that you have a current president and a former president who are both unpopular isn’t unusual. Both Obama and George W. Bush were unpopular before the 2010 midterm.

    What is unusual is that of the 18% who viewed neither Biden nor Trump favorably in the exit polls, 40% of them voted for Democrats. The backlash against one president this year may have been canceled out by the backlash against the other.

    In 2010, a September CNN poll had Democrats winning just 21% of those who viewed neither Bush nor Obama favorably.

    The reason for the difference between 2010 and 2022 is pretty obvious. I had pointed out before the election that Trump was getting more Google search traffic than Biden (i.e. the former president was in the minds of voters). Bush wasn’t receiving anywhere near the search traffic as Obama in 2010, though.

    Arguably, what truly made this midterm unique was abortion. Despite high inflation, only 31% of voters in the exit poll said it was the most important issue to their vote. A nearly identical percentage (27%) said abortion, and these voters overwhelmingly chose Democratic candidates for Congress.

    This matches the dynamic we saw in the special House elections following the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June. Democrats started doing considerably better than before the Supreme Court ruling.

    And while Republicans somewhat recovered their standing in national House polls in the closing weeks of the campaign, they never made it back to where they were during the spring.

    The fact that “abortion first” voters overwhelmingly chose Democrats makes sense given that 60% of exit poll respondents said the procedure should be legal in all or most cases.

    When you put it all together, Biden and the Democrats appear to have done something others have tried – and failed – in previous midterms: They turned the election into a choice between two parties instead of the usual referendum on the president’s party.

    Source: CNN

    2020 presidential election Abortion barack obama Donald Trump elections (by type) elections and campaigns George W. Bush government and public administration government bodies and offices government organizations - us governors gubernatorial races heads of government health and medical Joe Biden medical treatments and procedures midterm elections political candidates political figures - us political organizations politics sexual and reproductive health state elections us congress us democratic party US elections us federal elections us political parties us presidential elections us republican party us senate voters and voting
    Share. Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr Email VKontakte WhatsApp

    Related Posts

    At NATO, untangling Ukraine and Israel is the Biden administration’s challenge

    November 29, 2023

    Opinion: Trump’s plan to subvert American democracy is on the record. Will Republican voters care?

    November 29, 2023

    California vs. Florida: Why are people moving from one state to the other?

    November 29, 2023

    Opinion: The outlandish ruling that could eviscerate what’s left of the landmark Voting Rights Act

    November 29, 2023

    Opinion: George Santos deserves the congressional kick that’s coming, but Bob Menendez? Not yet

    November 28, 2023

    Silicon Valley executive Lexi Reese drops out of U.S. Senate race

    November 28, 2023
    Don't Miss

    Trump seeks improvement despite easy victory

    Sports November 29, 2023

    Judd Trump says he will have to improve significantly to stand any chance of winning…

    ABC News’ Rebecca Jarvis welcomes baby boy with husband Matt Hanson via surrogate

    November 29, 2023

    Biden Takes ‘Bidenomics’ to Colorado, Hits ‘MAGA’ Republicans

    November 29, 2023

    Activist fund Elliott seeks board seats at oil refiner Phillips 66

    November 29, 2023
    Stay In Touch
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Pinterest
    • Instagram
    • YouTube
    • Vimeo
    Our Picks

    Diddy’s Former Head of Security Backs Cassie’s Claim, Says He Saved Others

    November 29, 2023

    GM to cut spending on Cruise driverless vehicles by ‘hundreds of millions of dollars’

    November 29, 2023

    Canadian government reaches C-18 online news deal with Google: sources

    November 29, 2023

    Athletes impacted by climate change, survey finds

    November 29, 2023

    Subscribe to Updates

    Get the latest news from USA, Canada and Europe directly to your inbox.

    About Us
    About Us

    Your #1 source for all the website news, follow USA, Europe and Canada News. Latest reports about business, politics and entertainment.

    We're accepting new partnerships right now.

    Email Us: [email protected]

    Facebook Twitter YouTube LinkedIn
    Our Picks

    Google won't block news links in Canada after all

    November 29, 2023

    Edmonton police to announce charges in deaths of 2 constables

    November 29, 2023

    Trump seeks improvement despite easy victory

    November 29, 2023
    Newsletter

    Subscribe to Updates

    Get the latest news from USA, Canada and Europe directly to your inbox.

    © 2023 West Observer. All Rights Reserved.
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms
    • Contact
    • Khaleej Voice

    Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.