Tariq al-Hamid – Iran “80/20”

The question now is: How do we understand Iran? What is the effect of the protests? What is the difference between it and the so-called “green revolution” of 2009, which former US President Barack Obama recently apologized for, for electoral reasons, that he made a mistake when he did not support it?
And when, and how, do we know that Iran has reached the point of no return? And when can it be said that the cup has overflowed?
I took all these questions to a person who knows Iran well, by origin and by life, and because of his influence today in terms of assessing the situation in Iran internationally.
My well-informed source told me that one of the prominent figures inside Iran who is familiar with the structure of the regime there, told him that those who rally around the mullahs’ regime can be described as “80/20”.
The well-informed Iranian, my source says, explained the equation to him, saying that “there are 20 percent in Iran who believe in the system, and they are ideologues. 80 percent follow the mullahs’ regime; Because they are only looking for their own interests.
An Arab diplomat who closely monitors the Iranian file tells me that “this applies to all ideological regimes in the region, such as the former Iraqi (Baath) regime during the time of Saddam Hussein, as well as in Ba’athist Syria and the time of the Muslim Brotherhood when they ruled Egypt.” The same applies to the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan, and the rule of the Brotherhood (Hamas) group in Gaza now.” Because ideology is by nature narrow-minded, and the saying: “Your love for something blinds and deafens” applies to it, and it is contrary to political pragmatism.
My source, who is familiar with Iranian affairs, says that in order to understand Iran, and to know whether the protests taking place now, and which are about to enter their second month, are real or not, two points must be noted, with the realization that what is happening now is completely different from the “green revolution” of 2009.
What happened in 2009, my source says, was a political protest about the rules of the game in Iran. That is, the manipulation of the election results, and a shout was made: “What happened to my vote?”, and under clear leaders who suppressed it, the “Green Revolution” was suppressed, while what is happening now is completely different, and it is an economic, social protest, and diverse in its class.
For example, the video of the Iranian woman who says that she is in her eighties and appears while she is cutting her hair cannot be overlooked. In solidarity with Iranian women.
The video that spread to an Iranian woman roaming the streets of Tehran greeting women and men with a fist and giving them sweets cannot be ignored. In one of the videos, the woman appears to greet an Iranian in military uniform with her fist.
In that video, the one wearing a military uniform responds with a smile, gives him candy, and accepts it without hesitation. It is inconceivable to imagine the widespread videos of Iranian women initiating the “turban” of Iranian clerics on the street.
Well, when do we know that Iran has reached the point of no return? My source says: There are two important elements: The first is that the protests should be from the bottom up, and this has been achieved. The other thing is that divisions appear in the system from above, and then the winds of change will have blown.
Let’s watch.