Climate change increases flight disruptions

Climate change is increasing flight turbulence, and the trend is set to get worse, according to the first global study of its kind.

Turbulence from storms can be easily picked up by aircraft radar. But “clear air turbulence” is unpredictable, almost invisible, difficult to detect with current equipment, and can occur suddenly, giving flight crews no opportunity to warn passengers, according to Sky News.

It has long been expected that clear air turbulence will increase under climate change, but a new study from Britain’s University of Reading paints the most detailed picture yet of the effects that are beginning to emerge.

In a typical North Atlantic region — one of the busiest roads in the world — the total annual duration of severe turbulence increased by 55 percent, from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020.

Mild disorder increased by 37 percent from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and mild disorder increased by 17 percent from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.

Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist who co-authored the study, said: “Turbulence is everywhere in the atmosphere all the time, and usually you can’t see it like you’re walking down the street and there’s wind.”

Climate change increases temperature ranges, which disrupts the jet stream by sudden changes in wind speed or height, which causes the aircraft to move up and down more, and generates turbulence.

“My message from this is that we need to do something, otherwise flights will become even more turbulent in the future…with more global warming,” said Professor Williams.

He said improved forecasts, light detection technology and range, as well as radars on aircraft could help.

Should we reduce flying to combat climate change?

Aviation, itself, contributes to climate change by releasing carbon dioxide and other harmful gases.

It is expected to be one of the most difficult industries to decarbonise, in large part because alternative fuels are currently too expensive or in short supply, and electric batteries are too expensive.

Aviation is responsible for only 2.5 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions, as not many people travel… Only 1 in 10 of the world’s population takes a flight each year.

“Aviation represents a small percentage of total global emissions today, so stopping flying will not have a significant impact on our carbon footprint,” Williams said.

“But as the rest of the economy is decarbonized, aviation’s share of emissions will increase. I wouldn’t say we should cut back on flying, but we definitely need to decarbonize aviation quickly.”