Biden’s visit anticipates a “turn” in the course of the war in Ukraine

US President Joe Biden’s participation today and tomorrow in the three summits, Atlantic, European and Group of Seven, hosted by the Belgian capital, is not limited to affirming solidarity with European allies in the face of Russian military expansion and Moscow’s threats to resort to the use of unconventional weapons to achieve its goals that Europeans are certain of It will not stop at the borders of Ukraine.

This is confirmed by well-informed diplomatic and military sources in Brussels, who say that Biden’s initiative is a carefully calculated step by the intelligence and the US administration to coincide with the three summits with a turning point in the course of the Russian war in Ukraine, which is increasing field indications of its stumble and failure to achieve all the goals set by the Kremlin, and the possibilities of its rebound in A major military and political setback, which would radically re-shuffle the cards on the European and international arenas. These sources see that the initiative is also a confirmation that the United States is still the only effective superpower at the present time.

Reports and estimates circulating for days in European military and political circles no longer rule out a massive defeat of the Russian forces in Ukraine, after Moscow erred in all its calculations and pushed the largest part of its army into this adventure, and did not leave sufficient reserves to call for the fight after having to adjust its plans and move to encircling the cities. It was destroyed by artillery, after it was suffering from a great shortage of supplies and supplies and was subjected to continuous attacks by the Ukrainian forces and resistance.

NATO experts are talking about serious possibilities that the Russian forces will suddenly lose their positions, and not as a result of a slow and long war of attrition, and that their morale will completely collapse if supplies cannot be delivered to them or withdrawn with the necessary coverage and repositioning. NATO experts fear that this scenario, which has begun to show some features in recent days, may push Moscow to ignite other fronts, or to choose unconventional weapons, with all the ensuing repercussions for which NATO organs are working to prepare. Yesterday, the Atlantic circles paused at the statements made by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who said that Russia might resort to the use of nuclear weapons if it was exposed to an existential threat. . If Russia’s existence is threatened, we use it according to this doctrine.”

In the meantime, officials in the Atlantic and European circles rule out any diplomatic solution or agreement to de-escalate or de-escalate between the Russian and Ukrainian parties after the heavy losses they incurred. Observers also rule out any radical change in the formula of Western military aid to Ukraine, especially since NATO experts consider the US administration’s refusal to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine a wise and deliberate decision, in the midst of feelings fueled by the horrific scenes that the media reports day and night about the destruction and human suffering of Ukrainian civilians. .

NATO experts say that it is much better to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced weapons that enable them to inflict heavy losses on the Russian army, such as Javelin and Stinger precision missiles and TB2 drones, which have shown high effectiveness against Russian artillery positions. Experts consider that the impact of the air embargo is very limited on the course of the battles, as the enormous damage to Ukrainian cities is due to missiles and artillery shells, and not the Russian Air Force, which Moscow avoids entering on a large scale in the battles, to avoid being exposed to certain losses due to the advanced ground defenses it possesses. The Ukrainian army, supplied by Western countries.

In a press conference held yesterday afternoon (Wednesday), on the eve of the Atlantic Summit, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that member states had given the green light to reinforce the NATO forces deployed on the eastern borders in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, and said: “I expect leaders to agree To strengthen the presence of the Alliance by land, sea and air on the Eastern Front. Stoltenberg said that the deployment of more forces on the borders of these four countries would double the number of Atlantic Corps present on the eastern borders from 4 to 8, and strengthen NATO’s long-term deterrence and defense capacity in Europe.

In a direct warning to China, the Secretary-General of NATO said that Beijing supported Russia politically, and contributed to media disinformation and spreading lies, expressing his hope that NATO leaders will ask China not to provide material support to Moscow and to assume its responsibilities. He added, “If Russia uses chemical weapons, the nature of the conflict will change completely, and it will have far-reaching repercussions.”

In addition, an informed political source reported that the Western allies dismissed a proposal that had been under consideration for days to expel Russia from the G-20; Since any of the members of the group can veto this proposal, and because this would cause embarrassment to China, which the Westerners seek to win over in this war, or at least neutralize it and not provide it with military and economic aid from Moscow.

As an alternative to this proposal, the Western allies are considering not participating in the next summit, which is scheduled to be held by the group in Indonesia, in early October, which the Russian ambassador in Jakarta informed the Indonesian authorities yesterday that Vladimir Putin will attend.