Votes indicate a weak base and a need for articulation of the government, say specialists

After an important week for the government’s agenda, specialists heard from CNN We will state that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) needs to strengthen his alliances and articulate more with parliamentarians.

In the last days, the government suffered a defeat – to the approval of the temporary framework of the indigenous lands, in the Chamber – and guaranteed a victory – to MP two ministries – in the National Congress.

For Márcio Coimbra, professor at the Faculdade Presbyteriana Mackenzie Brasília (FPBM) and coordinator of the post-graduation course on institutional and governmental relations, the government is failing.

“Lula has a base of, not a maximum, 180 parliamentarians [de 513]. To have a single or two-thirds majority, it is necessary to negotiate vote by vote”, he says.

Com isso, the government needs to negotiate hard in the end to get the approval of the provisional measure from the two ministries in the last few minutes, Coimbra confirmed.

Allies of the government will still try to vote on the time frame to carry out a possible articulation, but they will not succeed and will end up defeated.

The professor points out that Lula returned to power trying to reissue the model of 20 years ago, when “the Executive had power and managed to seduce parliamentarians with charges and amendments.”

“Now, that power is on the other side, not the National Congress. People came out of the model of coalition presidentialism for a kind of semi-parliamentarism.”

Coimbra points out that this model is based on any failure, “unless the government elects a majority in its favor in Congress” – which is not the case of Lula.

For him, the solution is to open space for the center, “something similar to what Michel Temer did”, because “Lula governs and does not want to divide the management.”

“It seems to me that the only alternative is to deliver some ministries with a dated cover to the center for them to form a solid base and approve the projects of the government in Congress”, I concluded.

And political scientist Deysi Cioccari, who classifies the government base as “disjointed”, says that Lula needs to stop delegating some negotiations.

“People know that either Lula has delegated to the majority of the converts for Rui Costa [ministro da Casa Civil] and Alexandre Padilha [ministro das Relações Institucionais]. He needs to go back to doing like our previous governments: he himself should receive some parliamentarians, but to give a feeling of prestige”, he says.

In this way, according to her, the president would be able to build and strengthen his base.

In interview with CNN Radio, The political scientist Rafael Cortez also spoke about the need for the president to dedicate himself to parliamentary play and “be an important actor.”

A key figure for this approximation is Arthur Lira (PP-AL), president of the Chamber, who, according to the specialists, could obtain the approvals that the government wishes, as was done in the MP of the two ministries.

For Deysi, the president of Casa é um two protagonists of politics in the last two years and can “still give a letter and stick to the side of President Lula.”

Coimbra reinforced that the government needs to build a good relationship with the center and with the president of the Chamber.

“Lula is going to need to open space for this group of Arthur Lira did not govern if he wanted votes to approve all his measures. Senão, it will be the same as MP this week: it will be negotiated on a case-by-case basis, with the government releasing amendments that are still under its control. Ou seja, it will be very expensive, and it will not be a solid base. We don’t know if President Lula is willing to do so”, says the specialist.