The El Niño phenomenon is back, reports the agency; understand the effects for Brazil

The Center for Climate Prevision of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States reported, at the fifth fair (8), that the climatic phenomenon known as El Niño is back.

After three years of the La Niña weather pattern, which generally reduced global temperatures a little, El Niño officially returned, and is likely to produce extreme weather conditions by the end of this year.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported in May that the phenomenon should develop still in 2023.

O que é or El Niño

The El Niño phenomenon is a climatic pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean along the Ecuadorian Line and affects the climate throughout the world.

Hot water is normally confined to the western Pacific by winds blowing from east to west, in the direction of Indonesia and Australia. However, during the El Niño, the winds decrease and we can even reverse direction, allowing the hottest water to spread to the east, reaching South America.

Scientists are still seeking an answer as to why this is happening, but the slowdown in winds can last weeks or even months.

Among many large-scale weather patterns that work together to influence the global climate, El Niño can occur every two to seven years, in varying intensity. During the phenomenon, the waters of the eastern Pacific can be at 4°C hotter than usual.

What are the effects for Brazil?

The formation of El Niño can increase temperatures and cause dryness in parts of the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, according to researchers from the Center for Weather Prevision and Climatic Studies (CPTEC) of the National Institute of Space Research (Inpe). Not to the other extreme, in some parts of the southern region, the phenomenon should cause excess rainstorms.

According to the Climate, in June, the equatorial Pacific Ocean should have temperatures above average in the entire area, mainly near South America.

“O El Niño should definitely settle from July, and its influence will be noticed from August, as the increase in rain in the South region, decrease in the extreme north and elevation of temperatures, which tend to be above average in the goal of the Northern region of the country as of July”, increases the Climatempo. “It is estimated that there will be an El Niño of moderate intensity in this period.”

During the autumn, it is common to observe the advance of the Alta Subtropical do Atlântico Sul (ASAS) towards the Southeast, which favors drier periods between the central areas and part of the Southeast of the Country, typical of the season. There is still the formation of cold fronts and greater instabilities for the South of Brazil, Mato Grosso do Sul, in the Center-West, and São Paulo, in the Southeast region.

Still second or Climate, or coastal El Niño should impact the increase in rain in part of the South of Brazil, between Santa Catarina and Paraná, part of Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo.

Risk of economic loss

A study carried out by Christopher Callahan and Justing Mankin, from Dartmouth University, and published in the journal “Science”, examined the costs generated over time by El Niño since its first record, presenting an average cost of about US$3.4 trilhões (approximately R$ 16.8 trilhões).

In 2023, the phenomenon should cause a diamond of US$ 3 trilhões (R$ 14.8 trilhões) in the global economy by 2029.

“We can say with certainty that societies and economies are not just hit and recover. In the tropics and places that suffer the effects of El Niño, we obtain a persistent pattern during which growth is retarded by hair at least five years”, says Christopher Callahan.