The path of Jon Biden is totally free, within the Democratic Party, for the candidacy for the presidency of the United States, while the Republican Party is broken for an off-road journey, free of holes, stones, roots and other obstacles in front of it . It was the moment when Donald Trump was seen as the natural candidate among the North American conservatives. Today he counts on the strong concurrence of the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, and other candidates who, having the same political weight, have conditions of making strong noise.
A few months ago, a possible primary of the party would seem more like a formality to legitimize the candidacy of the always controversial businessman and, it should be noted, ex-president. No meanwhile, in the shadow of the governor of Flórida emerges more and more threatening.
Threatening about Trump to step off his pedestal as favorite for the Republican nomination and focus his attacks on DeSantis. I hadn’t provoked him before by saying that he’s still in front: “I’m really going to look at the second (placed) and I’ve dropped so much and so fast that I’m not going to be second for much longer. I hope he’s going to be third or fourth,” Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity.
A more recent investigation into a run in the Republican Party was disclosed at the end of May by CNN. Nela, Donald Trump is ahead, with 53%, ahead of DeSantis, who has 26%. On the occasion, meanwhile, the governor of Florida still had not officially announced that he would be a candidate.
This advantage of Trump over DeSantis is considerable, but he could fall as the governor of California advances with his recently announced candidacy. Or ex-president, no entanto, tem um Calcanhar de Achilles: he continues to lose to Biden in the investigations.
On the last day of the 16th, a Reuters/Ipsos investigation shows that the current president is still ahead and can beat his predecessor again, by six points ahead (44% to 38%). More important than this is the high trend. In February the difference was three percentage points, rising to five in March.
If these numbers are maintained, or the Republican electorate could discourage Trump from choosing the primaries, or that DeSantis and others would not be equal. Encouraged by the possibility, the governor of Florida resolved to seek the most radical elector, approving various anti-immigration and restriction laws for LGBTQI+ rights, in addition to entering into a large-scale crusade against Disney, which ended in a legal war and a decision of the conglomerate to interrupt an investment of US$ 1 billion in Florida for the next few years. A bold measure, which can give him more also throw many votes.
“The evidence of two candidates in the investigations shows DeSantis gaining support, while Trump has seen a decline,” says Cesar Beck, a political analyst. “Isso suggests that the Republican run will probably test which candidate can effectively challenge the former and no longer predominant Trump dominance.”
One of two names that emerge as strength for the primaries is the governor of North Dakota, Doug Burgum. As well as DeSantis, he is in front of a second term in his state, which indicates a status of high acceptance by his electorate. He has already pronounced himself as a pre-candidate and must officially announce his position on the next day 7.
Another name that arises by force is that of Nikki Haley, ex-governor of Carolina do Sul, of Indian origin. She was Trump’s first ambassador to the UN and has a brilliant diplomatic career. Another notable name is Tim Scott, the only black senator from the current party. Beck highlights the force of two white names within a strongly conservative party.
“Scott interrupts the narrative of American politics and work in quests like police reform. Despite the perception that there is no threat from Trump, Scott received the congratulations of the ex-president to enter the bullfight”, comments the analyst. About Haley, there is a feeling: “Her phase in competency tests based on age may not respond to a base of older primary voters.”
Other names that follow in the run are Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson and Larry Elder who will also declare their campaigns. “These are facing difficult battles in terms of recognition and support for the investigations,” says Beck.
Another name that must correspond to the republican indication is well known. Na true, only Trump is better known than the national terms. Mike Pence was vice-president in managing the controversial businessman and was chosen for being a more moderate name to attract the Republican vote less fond of extravagances. Now, he is preparing for another time to run in the primaries, or what he should announce next week.
Mike Pence gallantly fulfilled his role, working as a counterbalance to the highly controversial statements – and acts – of Donald Trump.
No meanwhile, the ally ended up being classified as an inimitable after the 2020 elections, when Joe Biden was elected president. Trump alleges fraud and today refuses to concede defeat. I asked Pence to support this anti-electoral crusade, but received no solidarity. Since then, he has been away.
All these candidates should, in these, gain strength with the continued processes and convictions that Trump has been accused of, ranging from the concealment of ultra-secret documents to rape. No entanto, it’s not what you see happening.
“The main weakness of the ex-president, which would be the processes and investigations that he experienced, ended up becoming an asset for him”, analyzes Leonardo Leão, a specialist in international law. He says that DeSantis has adopted populist measures, in the style of Trump, to gain strength with the more radical electorate, but that he has not been successful at the moment. “He is trying to be more nationally known and yet he has not gained popularity.”
Eduardo Ludugel, professor of international law, points out that he challenges the Republican pre-candidates to supplant Trump. “It is a historically large number of candidates, a cenário like never seen before, mainly not Republican reduto”. For him, the difference will be in the choice of two electoral strategists. “(Terão de colher) someone who thinks of the economy in a universal way, equity and racial consciousness, balance points over the mass immigration and an avalanche of conquests”.
The trail is still not beginning, and many other obstacles must arise in the path of Trump. No meanwhile, the leadership will continue with him, which means that it is enough to maintain the rhythm and deflect two larger bulls that will appear in front of him.
Source: CNN Espanol