Em interview CNN In this second-fair (3), or economist-chef of EQI Asset, Stephan Kautz, assessed that the reaction of the market on this first day after or first shift of the Elections, when the Ibovespa jumped 5.5% and the dollar fell 4%, was based on the composition of the Congress.
“As the Senate more directly – and it is a house that chances the proposals that we see from the Chamber – it could avoid or block more heterodox proposals [de um próximo governo]então or reagiu a isso market.”
Second Krautz, or market leaf reflected in “mixture of two effects”. “If Bolsonaro manages to be re-elected, he has a broad bench in Congress to advance with the proposals of him, one of them is privatization. On the other hand, a Lula government was formed, people could have greater weights and balances within Congress. I tied it because, when people olha, two left-wing parties participated in the Chamber, it changed little in relation to the current mandate, the change was more concentrated in the Senate itself, and a few more directly in the Chamber.”
The economist also highlighted the fiscal question of the country for 2023. “The main point of view for Brazil is the fiscal question. We have entrusted for the year that we see a deterioration due to the two benefits that are being given this year, we have a very challenging international environment, with a recession in the United States and Europe coming around, with much higher legal taxes. Or custo das dívidas will be greater year than we see this year with a primary that may be less year than we see this year.”
Therefore, according to Kautz, the market observed that the proposals for the fiscal that guarantee that a possible deterioration for the year that they see will be transitory, and not permanent. “É o que deixa o concerned market. As both of us saw with the idea that the roof might be altered, or the market was a little worried about how it could be an alternative proposal.”
Isso because, according to an economist, “a team from the Ministry of the Economy sees the transparency of a proposal that is tied up”, with some directorates in terms of the level of division and the trajectory of a prosecutor, you two make up a single proposal. On the side of ex-president Lula, there was no such clarity as to what would take place in the current proposal of the text.”
Então, he says, “this uncertainty as a prosecutor for the year to come and for perspective for the next few years, there is some concern”, he concluded.
Kautz still stressed that the trajectory of the public divide is not at risk. “O point is that the more you make fiscal stimuli this year, the more I am afraid to make adjustments not the year we see. No environment in which the economy will be receiving all the burden of increased sworn than the Central Bank fez agora, a more adverse international environment, with a potential recession and higher sworn, and hitting any impact of less stimuli as a leaf”, he endorses.
The economist further emphasizes that, by 2023, revenue should grow less than this year, because growth will be less. “Então or tax challenge is greater”. Stephan Kautz explains that, “whatever the market wants, it is not a miraculous plan to solve everything we see in the year, it is a transparency, a clarity, a trajectory for the coming years.”
It warns that the international scene is becoming more and more complicated for Brazil, due to the high number of juros. “It is increasingly important that this prosecutor be presented in a coherent manner so that people can shield themselves for this international rhythm. The more the world is sworn and the less it grows, or Brazil is not an island, people are going to suffer the consequences.”
Ministry of Economy
Stephan Kautz also addressed the market’s doubts about who will lead the Economy by 2023, since, it is necessary to have “a government assembly framework that guarantees the proposals when they come to Congress, they have a chance of being approved.”
“In terms of names, on the side of Bolsonaro it is clear that the continuity of the current minister Paulo Guedes is quite consolidated. On Lula’s side there is a lack of clarity. We understand that it is a profile that is still being defined, but it is still a team that does not have much clarity about what it is going to assume.
The economist also highlighted the importance of the autonomy of the Central Bank, which, according to him, also helped calm the market. “We never lived through this electoral period, we had a great victory. People see that BC is isolated from the debate [eleitoral], even closed the monetary opening cycle and inflation we see a little decelerating and this Central Bank will be maintained for a next government. This is a sign of calm for the market.”
For the pre-election market, there will be less volatility and anxiety with the elections this year than in previous elections, “precisely for this reason [da autonomia]”.
(Text published by Ana Carolina Nunes)
Source: CNN Espanol