Market bets on the most aggressive cut two oaths after the negative inflation

After negative data from previous inflation in July, two investors increased the perception of a more aggressive cut, we swore by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank (BC) at the beginning of August.

This is what data show from the B3 Copom Opção — negotiating platform for the tax rate on the Brazilian stock market — at this terça-feira (25).

Around 3:40 p.m., the bets for the 0.50 percentage point (pp) remain increased to 58%, while the cut of 0.25 pp was expected by 38% two investors.

In this second date (24), the cenário was more divided, with 47% selling a cut of 0.50 pp, against 45.50% betting on a reduction of 0.25 pp

Selic has been maintained by BC at 13.75% per year since August last year, despite pressure from the federal government and from economists and businessmen for the reduction of the tax.

The change in perception occurs after the July 15 Consumer Price Index (IPCA-15) will show a negative variation of 0.07%, compared to a rise of 0.04% the previous month.

No year, the accumulated discharge is 3.09% and, in 12 months, 3.19%.

The IPCA-15 is considered a preview of the IPCA (Amplo Consumer Price Index), the country’s official inflation index, which registered a deflation of 0.08% in June.

Also in this third, data from the Bulletin Focus — BC’s weekly survey that measures market perception — saw new revisions to lower inflation.

For this year, the forecast of the IPCA went from 4.95% to 4.90%. Also have cuts for 2024 (from 3.92% to 3.09%) and 2025 (3.55% to 3.50%).

As expectations for you swear, therefore, ficaram frozen for the third week in a row.

In 2023 the forecast is for the taxa to close at 12%, while 2024 and 2025 should date at 9.5% and 9%, in this order.