High swears are the competitiveness of the population and Brazilians use resources to pay dividends, say economists

You take liquids from poupança vêm registering records. The most recent of them was no more than February, when the outflows of R$ 11.5 billion were records for the most in the historical series of the Central Bank, which began in 1995. In January this year I did not break records, but it was still R $33.6 million more from withdrawals than from deposits.

The withdrawals also set records in the 2022 balance. The withdrawals amounted to R$ 103.2 billion, which is the biggest annual loss ever recorded at the time, the Central Bank disclosed.

According to specialists, the high tax rate, or population share, and the seasoning explain the volume collected registered by the Central Bank (BC).

“Hoje a poupança does not pay well. In this context, we see public titles, funds and others that yield closer to Selic. The maturity on the part of the public is made with the fact that people do not want to give up their money, there is no better alternative”, says Juliana Inhasz, economist at Insper.

The yield of the poupança is related to the tax of juros and works in the following way: if the Selic tax is above 8.5% per year, the yield of the modality will be 0.5% per month, despite the variation of the reference tax (TR). If the taxa is equal to or below 8.5% per year, the yield of the poupança will be equivalent to 70% of Selic plus the variation of TR.

Currently, the basic tax of Jews is at 13.75% per year, the highest level since 2016. At the beginning of 2022, Selic was 9.15% per year.

A loss of competitiveness for other titles, second specialists, can explain part two serves. Another explanation is in failure. The data shows that the number of divided Brazilians is growing and many use the populated money to place accounts on the day.

“The families are divided. We have a rise in the tax rate that the economy takes time to notice. So we are feeling still or do I swear that it is rising. In the coming months it will give a feeling of stability, plus a stability of two high values. Logo, to the families that have shared, the price of these benefits has increased”, says Rachel de Sá, chef de economia da Rico.

Given by Serasa, Experian estimates that, in five years, the number of Brazilians has gone from 59.3 million, in January 2018, to 70.1 million, in January 2023, a record in the historical series.

The value of the dividends also increased. On average, each non-compliance must R$ 4,612.30. In January 2018, it was R$ 3,926.40. There was a growth of 19% in the period.

The economist explains that in a normal context, the granting of credit has a positive relationship with economic growth, once it shows greater consumption, asset financing and a stricken economy.

All in all, a specialist says that in recent months “we have seen that a worse type of credit has risen. It is the credit of the rotating cartão, of the special check, of all kinds of parcels for a divided person. It is not the most sustainable one. The families are divided”.

As a last point raised by specialists, there is a question of seasoning. At the beginning of the year, on the second day, many Brazilians go to the money raised to help the payment of taxes and school readjustments. All common years first months of the year.

“It is very common at the beginning of the year, because at the end of the year there are expenses with food, presents and travel. And, at the beginning of the year, as the income is relatively low, the people throw away the money from the poupança to collect dividends and benefits”, says Simão Silber, a researcher at the Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (Fipe).

Over the past year or BC, the monetary opening cycle began in March 2021, when the basic tax rate was at 2%, the lowest level in history. The taxa was raised by 4.5 percentage points.

At the fourth fair (22), the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank decided to maintain the Selic, the basic tax of juros da economía, at 13.75%.