OPINION | Possible rapprochement between the US and Cuba: crisis on the island, talks and new exodus

Editor’s note: Jorge G. Castañeda is a CNN contributor. He was Mexico’s Secretary of Foreign Relations from 2000 to 2003. He is currently a professor at New York University and his most recent book, “America Through Foreign Eyes,” was published by Oxford University Press in 2020. The views expressed in this commentary are solely from the author. You can find more opinion pieces at CNNe.com/opinion.

(CNN Spanish) — Although there are not too many hotbeds of immigration tension today for the United States and the Biden administration, there may be a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Perhaps the most complex challenge for the US government in the last year has been the new Cuban exodus. During fiscal year 2022 (October 2021 to September 2022), more than 220,000 Cubans arrived in the United States, according to Customs and Border Protection.

Almost all, via Nicaragua and Mexico; only in October more than 28,000 arrived. This is a stratospheric figure, almost twice as high as the sum of all the exiles from Mariel in 1980, and the rafters crisis in 1994. 2% of the population has left the island in one year, as if 2.5 million nationals had left Mexico during the same period.

For President Joe Biden, the problem is especially thorny. For several reasons. In the first place, because all Cubans, upon entering the United States, can take advantage of the Cuban Adjustment Act (CAA) -of 1966-, and, after one year, obtain a temporary work permit, in addition to having almost always relatives in Miami. Only those who meet certain requirements are eligible for permanent residence. Obama suspended the “dry foot, wet foot” program, but the CAA was passed by Congress and there is no consensus to repeal it.

Secondly, the United States has not been able to convince Mexico to receive back the Cubans, who would be deported under Title 42 of the health emergency, thanks to which Washington was able to deport hundreds of thousands of Central Americans and now Venezuelans to Mexico. For various reasons, the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has refused to receive the Cubans.

Finally, until a couple of weeks ago, Havana had refused to allow deportation flights from the United States to the island. Obviously, they were seeking to trade the flight permits for various concessions from Biden, from lifting sanctions toughened by Trump to renewing negotiations begun under the Obama presidency on a variety of issues.

Until the November 8 midterm elections, Washington had refused to enter into this negotiation seriously, but the landslide defeat of the Democratic candidates in Florida showed the futility of holding the negotiation with Havana hostage to the Cuban exile vote in Miami. I think it will be a long time before Biden’s party wins a Senate or Governor’s seat in that state again. But the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Cuban exiles does not make it possible to wait for that remote date.

On the side of the island, surely the urgency is equal or greater. The country’s economic situation is perhaps worse than during the so-called special period of the 1990s. The scarcity of everything, the astringency of foreign currency, inflation, the lack of opportunities and despair have generated the exodus, but also sporadic protests, discontent widespread and tensions perhaps not seen in Cuba after the arrival of the Revolution. The need to find a way out is as pressing for Raúl Castro – now 91 years old – and Miguel Díaz-Canel, as it is for Biden. Like Fidel Castro since his first years in power, the current Cuban leaders encourage or, in any case, turn a blind eye to mass emigration. Suits them. It is inconceivable that the dictatorship of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua would allow the legal arrival of hundreds of thousands of Cubans without the Cuban regime seeing it favorably.

Hence, at the beginning of November several rounds of negotiations were held between the two governments. The talks had begun since April to resume the delivery of the 20,000 US visas a year, agreed since 1994. Cuba announced on November 11 that it would accept deportation flights from the United States, although it did not say on what date or in what volume. . Likewise, the two delegations omitted any comment on possible US concessions that could contribute to improving the disastrous Cuban economic situation.

All this does not mean that all the problems have been solved or that the obstacles have disappeared. The widespread Castroist repression of the protest on July 11 last year makes it difficult for people with a political background to return to Cuba. This would be an inadmissible refoulement, under international law and even US asylum law. Logically, Cuban asylum seekers in the United States will argue political reasons and try to deny any economic motivation. In addition, it is possible that Cuban-American senators such as Robert Menéndez, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, will oppose deportations to Cuba, unless Havana offers concessions in terms of freedoms, human rights and greater opening to the private sector of the economy, issues -in principle- untouchable for the regime.

Despite this, the negotiations are likely to continue and prosper. Potential deals are good for both countries. Biden has enough immigration problems with many other countries not to try to solve at least the one in Cuba. And the desperate economic situation of the island forces her to look for solutions, using, as on many previous occasions, the exodus as a bargaining chip. It is not, in either case, a position of great altruism or nobility, but realpolitik of the purest strain. The relief for Cuba will be relative, but better than nothing. And Biden will buy time, before facing again the hysterical Republican demands for immigration in 2024. Everyone wins, except the Cubans: those who leave and will be sent back, and those who will stay inside forever.