How and when the war in Ukraine will end: three scenarios from Arestovych

Many components depend on the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian military. The positive actions of the Armed Forces may even cause the assassination of Putin by one of the generals surrounding him.

The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can have a positive effect on the course of the war and push the invaders back to the state of February 23.

About this in an interview with the YouTube channel “Holovanov” told former adviser to the Office of the President Oleksiy Arestovych.

“Now we are entering a counteroffensive. Depending on its results, there will be one or another scenario. For example, we carried out a successful counteroffensive and reached the gates of Crimea, in fact the entire southern front fell, we returned it to the state of February 23, many prisoners, many trophies. In Russia, according to one of the assumptions, the moral decline of the troops should begin. Putin will be able to stop him later with “blockades”. It is not known whether this is possible, the generals may shoot him. This is a big question. Bifurcation point. Another option. We went on the offensive, but it didn’t work out very well for us. We have achieved some average results and they are full of optimism and are again trying to gather their army to attack us in response”, – said Arestovych.

According to him, the occupiers will have problems with gathering troops, because they did not agree with China, there will be enough people, but they will not have enough of their own weapons and military equipment.

“Even now, 40% of their troops are the so-called rifle battalions, which ride on buses and trucks without armored vehicles, without heavy weapons. The third option is as follows. We left, achieved our goals, reached the border with Crimea, but they are still standing. It will be some kind of war for Crimea and Donbas. It is very unfavorable for them, because we have a large number of people released due to the release of territories and we can rotate more often, get further, etc. That is, we do not know what the exact scenario will be. We have to see how the counterattack ends. But in any of these scenarios, February 2024 is too long a deadline for the Russian Federation in its current situation,” the former OP adviser emphasized.

He also added that the Russians will not be able to mobilize again. Sanctions are crushing them, they are spending a huge amount of money on compensation, private gold mining has been allowed or is going to be allowed.

“This is a very unfavorable sign. This means that they started selling their gold stock. In the end, they will be faced with a choice — to pay the security forces or to pay pensioners, state employees and everyone else. And this is a dilemma that will make them think about the end of the war seriously, they are still thinking about it now. Otherwise, there would be no proposals for negotiations without preconditions pouring in every month. Strategy is geography. The Russians are waiting for an attack on the South, relatively speaking on the Crimea or the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov. Or two strikes — one to the South, and the other somewhere to the north of the Luhansk region. We do not know what scenario the General Staff will follow. The maximum is clear — exit to the border with Crimea,” Arestovych stressed.

We will remind that the Russian army of occupation is waiting for a counteroffensive Armed Forces of Ukraine builds a large linear defense in the Zaporizhzhia region.

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