ChatGPT and the latest wave of AI could affect some 300 million jobs worldwide, according to Goldman Sachs

(CNN) — According to Goldman Sachs economists, as many as 300 million full-time jobs around the world could be automated in some way with the new wave of artificial intelligence spawning platforms like ChatGPT.

In a report published Sunday, economists predicted that 18% of work globally could be computerized, with the effects felt more profoundly in advanced economies than in emerging markets.

That’s partly because white-collar workers are considered to be more at risk than blue-collar workers. White-collar workers and lawyers are expected to be hit the hardest, the economists said, compared with the “little effect” AI will have on physical or outdoor occupations, such as general construction and repair work.

In the United States and Europe, about two-thirds of jobs today “are exposed to some degree of AI automation,” and up to a quarter of all work could be done entirely by AI, the bank estimates.

If generative artificial intelligence “delivers on its promised capabilities, the job market could face significant disruption,” the economists wrote. The term refers to the technology behind ChatGPT, the sensational chatbot that has taken the world by storm.

ChatGPT, which can respond to prompts and write essays, has already led many companies to rethink how people should work on a daily basis.

This month, its developer unveiled the latest version of the software behind the bot, GPT-4. The platform quickly impressed early adopters with its ability to make coding simple, quickly build a website from a simple sketch, and pass exams with high marks.

Increased use of such AI will likely lead to job losses, the Goldman Sachs economists wrote. But they noted that, historically, technological innovation that initially displaces workers has also created long-term job growth.

While workplaces may change, the widespread adoption of AI could ultimately increase labor productivity and increase global GDP by 7% per year over a 10-year period, according to Goldman Sachs.

“While the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and therefore AI is more likely to complement rather than replace them. ”, added the economists.

“Most workers are in occupations that are partially exposed to AI automation and, following AI adoption, are likely to apply at least some of their freed-up capacity to productive activities that increase output.”

Among US workers expected to be affected, for example, 25% to 50% of their workload “may be replaced,” the researchers added.

“The combination of significant savings in labor costs, the creation of new jobs, and increased productivity for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a labor productivity boom of the kind that followed the emergence of earlier use technologies. such as the electric motor and the personal computer.

CNN’s Nicole Goodkind contributed to this report.