Budanov’s forecasts: what the head of the GUR said about the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces, the return of Crimea and the end of the war

The chief scout likes to make loud predictions.

The head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, regularly makes predictions about the course of hostilities, the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces, and the end of the war. He also tells what awaits Russia and Vladimir Putin after the defeat.

A significant part of the forecasts of the head of the State Government have already come true, some have not. What Budanov said since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia – read in the TSN.ua article.

Before 24.02.2022

• November 21, 2021 Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with Military Times that the Russian Federation is preparing to invade Ukraine at the end of January or at the beginning of February 2022. He warned that the attack would be far more devastating than anything Ukrainians had previously seen in Crimea and Donbas: “Such an attack would likely include airstrikes, artillery and armored attacks, followed by airborne assaults in the east, airborne assaults in Odesa and Mariupol and a smaller invasion through Belarus.”

Spring 2022

• April 18 Budanov, commenting on the assault by Russian troops on Mariupol, said: “I am absolutely sure that our defenders will not give up and will defend themselves to the last – it will not be their destruction, but our general victory. Mariupol will be unblocked and liberated. And all our boys who are there, they are real heroes.”
• April 20 the head of military intelligence said that the turning point in the war with Russia will come in the second half of August.
• May 2 Kyrylo Budanov stated that there are two options for ending the war for Russia: “The first is the division of Russia into three or more parts. And the second is the relative preservation of the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation during a change in the country’s leadership. In the latter case, the new leader will say that the Russian Federation has nothing to do with in all these processes, it was a sick dictator, and the country is useless here. In this case, Russia will give up all the territories occupied by it – from the islands of Japan to Koenigsberg (now Kaliningrad), which belongs to Germany.”
• May 24 the head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense stated that the active phase of the war should reach its maximum decline by the end of 2022. According to him, Russia has enough resources to wage a normal war for 12 months. Budanov also suggested that the Armed Forces should “at least enter the territory of Crimea” by the end of the year.

Summer 2022

• June 25 Budanov said that Ukraine “will not wait for a miracle”, but will win back its territory as a result of a counteroffensive. According to him, Ukrainians should have seen the “tangible results” of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region around August.
• June 27 the head of the GUR stated that Putin will never agree to the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine and will fight to the last: “If Russia now admits that it could not defeat Ukraine… this is not the collapse of the system, it is the collapse of statehood. Therefore, they will fight as long as they can. The Russian army will forced to fight to the end. They have no other choice.”
• July 4 Budanov predicted an attempt to include the occupied territories of Ukraine into the Russian Federation: “They are preparing to join, but in parallel with this there are other options. The creation of new “people’s republics”, the creation of one large “people’s republic”, the annexation of a large territory to Russia, the annexation of a separate territory to Russia – everything will be decided, as always in Russia, on the last day.”
• July 22 the chief military intelligence officer did not rule out that in 2023 Russia may make a new attempt to capture Odessa: “They have such plans. We also have a plan, but time will tell what will happen. As I said before and will repeat again: all our questions we decide only by ourselves exclusively by military means. That is, by means of force.”

Autumn 2022

• September 30 the head of the GUR expressed his confidence that the war will subside in the winter of 2023, and “after the winter, the end of the conflict will begin, with the exit to the administrative borders of 1991 at the first stage.” He predicted that the Armed Forces could enter Crimea by the end of spring 2023.
• October 18 Budanov said that after the end of the war, a very serious political process related to changes in the current Russian Federation would begin: “Certain regions will be separated from Russia… Moscow will pay reparations to us.”
• October 24 the chief military intelligence officer predicted that after the deoccupation of Crimea, the Kerch bridge would be destroyed as one of the symbols of the “Russian peace”.
• October 28 Kyrylo Budanov said that the ZSU will probably release Kherson by the end of November. After that, according to him, the occupiers can partially destroy the Kakhovskaya HPP in order to stop the advance of the Defense Forces in the direction of Crimea. However, even under such circumstances, the head of intelligence said, the Russians will not be able to stop the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces.
• He also said that Vladimir Putin may not live to the end of the war if the occupiers are defeated, and there are already discussions in the Russian Federation about who can replace the current president.

Winter 2022-23

• December 6 Budanov noted that the Russian army would not dare to repeat the offensive from the territory of Belarus, and talk about a threat to Ukraine from the north is a special information operation of the Russian Federation. He also stated that the loss of Russia in the war is already a settled issue.
• January 4 the head of the GUR stated that in the spring the Armed Forces will launch a “serious” counteroffensive, and the combat operations at the front in March will be “the hottest”.
• On January 8, Kyrylo Budanov expressed confidence that “2023 will be the year of victory, but we must prepare very well for it.” According to him, the next issue will be the reintegration of Ukrainian territories that were under Russian control for 9 years.
• January 31 the head of military intelligence expressed the opinion that in 2023, Russia will focus its efforts on occupying the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Budanov called the offensive of the invaders from Belarus unlikely. He also expressed confidence that Ukraine will be able to de-occupy the Crimean peninsula: “Crimea will be returned to us. I will tell you more: everything started in Crimea in 2014, and everything will end there.”
• February 22 Budanov said that the departure of Ukrainian troops to the borders in 1991 would not necessarily mean the end of the war. According to him, the war may have to be changed to the format of an “invariable defensive operation”, as in Israel. When asked how long the great war will last, the head of the GUR drew parallels with a football match: “The score is 1:1, and the minute is 70. This is a subjective vision.”
• February 23 When asked if the Armed Forces of Ukraine would go to the borders by the end of the summer of 1991, the head of the GUR answered: “God willing, we have every chance to end the war with our victory and return all our borders to the model of 1991. These are my thoughts and assessments. From I’m not leaving them anywhere.”
• February 27 the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence stated that the next three months will be very active combat operations at the front, which will decide the further course of events. According to him, active battles are expected “absolutely everywhere”, since Russia is not ready for a long war and will be in a hurry to achieve at least some results on the front. Budanov predicted that currently China will not agree to transfer weapons to Russia.
• When asked if Putin would dare to press the nuclear button, Budanov answered: “How many times has this happened? The red line is that Russia will use nuclear weapons, it is already using them almost… The first time it happened at the end of spring, and then once every six months . The apogee was from the end of summer to mid-autumn. Did they do it? No, they didn’t do it. Can they do it? Hypothetically, everything in life is possible. And realistically? No, it’s impossible.”

Spring 2023

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